Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogswin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
South Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
South Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
566 picks · 465 bans
Mars
434 picks · 671 bans
Dragon Knight
412 picks · 530 bans
Bane
392 picks · 264 bans
Puck
382 picks · 845 bans
Pangolier
338 picks · 560 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 638 bans
Snapfire
330 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% South Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:32
Balrogs 46%South Team 54%
The model gave 54% on South Team — the game was taken by South Team in 43:28.
Game 2prediction correct17:45
Balrogs 46%South Team 54%
The model gave 54% on South Team — the game was taken by South Team in 54:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth Team · 54%
Series resultBalrogs 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2