Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogsloss 0:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TITeam Insanewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balrogs
Rubick
Demon · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
ShakaLord · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Venomanceroften banned
drakesh1t · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
Centaur Warrunner
drakesh1t · 1 game
Disruptor
ShakaLord · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
Team Insane
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
355 picks · 261 bans
Marci
311 picks · 559 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 213 bans
Undying
283 picks · 470 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 442 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 520 bans
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 306 bans
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 108 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Insane
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Balrogs 47%Team Insane 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Insane — the game was taken by Team Insane.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Insane · 53%
Series resultTeam Insane 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1