European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
Balu Teamwin 2:1series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:1
summer bearloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balu Team
No games played over 6 months.
summer bear
Techies
Delight · 6 games
Axeoften banned
azimoff · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
zuyzyan · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 2 games
Hoodwink
Delight · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Panda · 2 games
Kezoften banned
zuyzyan · 2 games
Legion Commander
azimoff · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
636 picks · 430 bans
Rubick
550 picks · 308 bans
Phoenix
486 picks · 588 bans
Tiny
466 picks · 396 bans
Pangolier
434 picks · 643 bans
Puck
352 picks · 1018 bans
Ember Spirit
343 picks · 536 bans
Tusk
342 picks · 306 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Balu Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% summer bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:45
Balu Team 26%summer bear 74%
The model gave 74% on summer bear — the game was taken by summer bear in 32:58.
Game 2prediction missed41:27
Balu Team 26%summer bear 74%
The model gave 74% on summer bear — the game was taken by Balu Team in 46:40.
Game 3prediction missed37:44
Balu Team 26%summer bear 74%
The model gave 74% on summer bear — the game was taken by Balu Team in 47:42.
Model check result
Model favoritesummer bear · 74%
Series resultBalu Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3