DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Balu Teamloss 0:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TLTeam Levanticwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balu Team
No games played over 6 months.
Team Levantic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
646 picks · 724 bans
Tiny
522 picks · 479 bans
Tusk
491 picks · 395 bans
Warlock
437 picks · 295 bans
Phoenix
400 picks · 336 bans
Shadow Demon
400 picks · 1094 bans
Mars
383 picks · 569 bans
Puck
383 picks · 803 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Balu Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Balu Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:46
Balu Team 54%Team Levantic 46%
The model gave 54% on Balu Team — the game was taken by Team Levantic in 37:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteBalu Team · 54%
Series resultTeam Levantic 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1