European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Balu Teamloss 0:2series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Synapsewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balu Team
No games played over 6 months.
Team Synapse
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 12 games
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 10 games
Mirana
emptiness · 9 games
Hoodwinksignature
Jeezy · 7 games
Baneoften banned
Stoic · 5 games
Clockwerk
emptiness · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 4 games
Dark Seeroften banned
emptiness · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
460 picks · 280 bans
Ember Spirit
307 picks · 455 bans
Mirana
302 picks · 122 bans
Dark Willow
299 picks · 127 bans
Clockwerk
283 picks · 257 bans
Centaur Warrunner
277 picks · 290 bans
Earth Spirit
277 picks · 407 bans
Bane
271 picks · 390 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Balu Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Team Synapse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:40
Balu Team 11%Team Synapse 89%
The model gave 89% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 26:07.
Game 2prediction correct10:33
Balu Team 11%Team Synapse 89%
The model gave 89% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 26:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Synapse · 89%
Series resultTeam Synapse 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2