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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bammysoyloss 0:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bammysoy

Tusk
Tusk
Husky · 8 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
BliNcc · 7 games
43%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Sammyboy · 5 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Moo · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 5 games
80%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Mo13ei · 5 games
20%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
BliNcc · 5 games
60%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Husky · 5 games
80%

Shopify Rebellion

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 12 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 11 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fly · 8 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Arteezy · 8 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
315 picks · 462 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
278 picks · 416 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
266 picks · 445 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
247 picks · 220 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
243 picks · 138 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
237 picks · 328 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
235 picks · 676 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
232 picks · 361 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 75%
Hero pool strength51% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:48
Bammysoy 31%Shopify Rebellion 69%
The model gave 69% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 24:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMo13ei
43% · 198 games48% · 155 games
MorphlingArteezy
Morphling
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSammyboy
50% · 166 games53% · 172 games
DoomSabeRLight-
Doom
Enigma
EnigmaMoo
54% · 175 games47% · 128 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Muerta
MuertaBliNcc
54% · 90 games47% · 298 games
RubickThiolicor
Rubick
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritZfreeK
55% · 124 games
Game 2prediction correct8:37
Bammysoy 29%Shopify Rebellion 71%
The model gave 71% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 16:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterMoo
48% · 88 games54% · 349 games
PangolierYopaj
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMo13ei
50% · 229 games49% · 148 games
WindrangerArteezy
Windranger
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerSammyboy
42% · 59 games65% · 13 games
OmniknightSabeRLight-
Omniknight
Techies
TechiesBliNcc
58% · 191 game50% · 92 games
HoodwinkThiolicor
Hoodwink
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernZfreeK
36% · 35 games
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 84%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2