PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ban9PivoSamogonwin 1:0series probability
8%92%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ban9PivoSamogon
No games played over 6 months.
Natus Vincere Junior
Lionsignature
Riddys · 28 games
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 22 games
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 21 game
Tinysignature
Niku · 19 games
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 17 games
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 17 games
Lich
Riddys · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
411 picks · 530 bans
Muerta
401 picks · 332 bans
Tusk
366 picks · 386 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 578 bans
Lion
349 picks · 173 bans
Batrider
343 picks · 429 bans
Beastmaster
333 picks · 785 bans
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 479 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 75%
Hero pool strength61% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Ban9PivoSamogon 8%Natus Vincere Junior 92%
The model gave 92% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Ban9PivoSamogon.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 92%
Series resultBan9PivoSamogon 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1