DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionBBarrancoBarloss 1:2
series probability
5%95%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Heroicwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BarrancoBar
Doomoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Grimstroke
Accel · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
bsK7- · 1 game
Bane
Accel · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Accel · 1 game
Silencer
Accel · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
bsK7- · 1 game
Heroic
Jakirooften banned
Thiolicor · 37 games
Tusk
Scofield · 29 games
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 23 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 21 game
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 21 game
Viperoften banned
TaiLung · 20 games
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 19 games
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
639 picks · 695 bans
Tiny
517 picks · 450 bans
Tusk
490 picks · 408 bans
Warlock
433 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
415 picks · 386 bans
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 1089 bans
Puck
389 picks · 830 bans
Mars
383 picks · 564 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% BarrancoBar
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
BarrancoBar 5%Heroic 95%
The model gave 95% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic.
Game 2prediction missed
BarrancoBar 5%Heroic 95%
The model gave 95% on Heroic — the game was taken by BarrancoBar.
Game 3prediction correct
BarrancoBar 5%Heroic 95%
The model gave 95% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 95%
Series resultHeroic 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3