PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Apex Genesisloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Apex Genesis
Dark Willow
Bignum · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
YamSun · 10 games
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 10 games
Crystal Maiden
YamSun · 9 games
Rubicksignature
Bignum · 8 games
Snapfire
Bignum · 8 games
Windrangeroften banned
Sammyboy · 8 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Sammyboy · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
340 picks · 290 bans
Jakiro
331 picks · 253 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 432 bans
Enchantress
312 picks · 526 bans
Rubick
301 picks · 289 bans
Windranger
296 picks · 424 bans
Dragon Knight
294 picks · 473 bans
Sand King
291 picks · 795 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:9
beastcoast 53%Apex Genesis 47%
The model gave 53% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 35:34.
Game 2prediction missed9:24
beastcoast 53%Apex Genesis 47%
The model gave 53% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 30:24.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 53%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2