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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:1
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Balrogsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.

Balrogs

Rubick
Rubick
Demon · 18 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
ShakaLord · 11 games
73%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
ShakaLord · 11 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Demon · 9 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
ShakaLord · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
694 picks · 597 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
567 picks · 491 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
462 picks · 1123 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
456 picks · 834 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
409 picks · 1052 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
388 picks · 549 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
386 picks · 843 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
385 picks · 211 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:26
beastcoast 82%Balrogs 18%
The model gave 82% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Balrogs in 20:48.
Game 2prediction missed40:41
beastcoast 82%Balrogs 18%
The model gave 82% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Balrogs in 44:37.
Game 3prediction missed32:16
beastcoast 82%Balrogs 18%
The model gave 82% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Balrogs in 29:58.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 82%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3