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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.

BOOM Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 8 games
38%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 8 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 7 games
29%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 6 games
33%
Luna
Luna
Pakazs · 5 games
40%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
ILICH- · 5 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Panda · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
349 picks · 526 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
301 picks · 438 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
298 picks · 219 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
295 picks · 261 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
266 picks · 416 bans
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 457 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
260 picks · 754 bans
54%
Luna
Luna
257 picks · 223 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:6
beastcoast 39%BOOM Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 38:32.
Game 2prediction correct21:7
beastcoast 39%BOOM Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 24:15.
Game 3prediction correct16:37
beastcoast 39%BOOM Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 47:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 61%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3