Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
BOOM Esports
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 24 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 16 games
Gyrocopter
Pakazs · 14 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 14 games
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 13 games
Magnusoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
449 picks · 704 bans
Centaur Warrunner
434 picks · 616 bans
Gyrocopter
428 picks · 393 bans
Batrider
411 picks · 753 bans
Rubick
387 picks · 161 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 749 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1043 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total74% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:13
beastcoast 26%BOOM Esports 74%
The model gave 74% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 27:47.
Game 2prediction correct18:15
beastcoast 26%BOOM Esports 74%
The model gave 74% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 74%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2