Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
BOOM Esports
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 24 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 18 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 18 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 15 games
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 15 games
Gyrocopter
Pakazs · 14 games
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 723 bans
Centaur Warrunner
436 picks · 625 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 404 bans
Batrider
406 picks · 757 bans
Rubick
389 picks · 161 bans
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 1036 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 747 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total73% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:11
beastcoast 27%BOOM Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 24:21.
Game 2prediction correct26:3
beastcoast 27%BOOM Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 13:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 73%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2