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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panda · 25 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 21 game
76%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 19 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 17 games
35%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 16 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 13 games
31%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
446 picks · 678 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
419 picks · 196 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 548 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 422 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
351 picks · 583 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
347 picks · 168 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 639 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
333 picks · 846 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total61% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:39
beastcoast 39%BOOM Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 39:05.
Game 2prediction correct28:11
beastcoast 39%BOOM Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 40:21.
Game 3prediction correct35:18
beastcoast 39%BOOM Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 42:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 61%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3