The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 1:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Entityloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
725 picks · 460 bans
Tusk
606 picks · 553 bans
Tiny
570 picks · 457 bans
Treant Protector
512 picks · 568 bans
Snapfire
396 picks · 228 bans
Mirana
395 picks · 386 bans
Nature's Prophet
371 picks · 546 bans
Death Prophet
367 picks · 572 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:18
beastcoast 57%Entity 43%
The model gave 57% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Entity in 39:35.
Game 2prediction missed3:20
beastcoast 57%Entity 43%
The model gave 57% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Entity in 29:31.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 57%
Accuracy by game0 of 2