Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Entity
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DM · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Watson · 1 game
Elder Titan
Fishman · 1 game
Grimstroke
Kataomi · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
No[o]ne · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
385 picks · 656 bans
Gyrocopter
319 picks · 369 bans
Clockwerk
316 picks · 449 bans
Dark Willow
313 picks · 350 bans
Weaver
305 picks · 572 bans
Rubick
300 picks · 184 bans
Hoodwink
292 picks · 201 bans
Centaur Warrunner
282 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 71%
Hero pool strength55% beastcoast
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total81% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:38
beastcoast 19%Entity 81%
The model gave 81% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 27:39.
Game 2prediction correct17:27
beastcoast 19%Entity 81%
The model gave 81% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 30:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 81%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2