Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hokoriloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
425 picks · 273 bans
Mars
410 picks · 548 bans
Tiny
369 picks · 425 bans
Death Prophet
340 picks · 697 bans
Ember Spirit
305 picks · 448 bans
Sand King
302 picks · 403 bans
Pangolier
266 picks · 392 bans
Weaver
263 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total59% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:35
beastcoast 59%Hokori 41%
The model gave 59% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Hokori in 27:34.
Game 2prediction missed26:36
beastcoast 59%Hokori 41%
The model gave 59% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Hokori in 36:04.
Game 3prediction missed23:28
beastcoast 59%Hokori 41%
The model gave 59% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Hokori in 38:06.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 59%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3