Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hokoriloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
761 picks · 606 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 467 bans
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1006 bans
Tiny
415 picks · 379 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 943 bans
Doom
395 picks · 603 bans
Undying
392 picks · 602 bans
Mirana
386 picks · 208 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total72% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:21
beastcoast 72%Hokori 28%
The model gave 72% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Hokori in 35:12.
Game 2prediction missed17:30
beastcoast 72%Hokori 28%
The model gave 72% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Hokori in 46:30.
Game 3prediction missed32:17
beastcoast 72%Hokori 28%
The model gave 72% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Hokori in 34:33.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 72%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3