Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка. Финал · BO5
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 3:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Infamousloss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Infamous
Gyrocoptersignature
Lumière · 10 games
Marssignature
Sacred · 9 games
Bloodseekersignature
Sacred · 7 games
Earth Spirit
Michael · 7 games
Miranasignature
Michael · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Michael · 5 games
Lunaoften banned
Parker · 5 games
Ogre Magi
Prada · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
540 picks · 379 bans
Mars
453 picks · 653 bans
Queen of Pain
436 picks · 528 bans
Weaver
426 picks · 845 bans
Snapfire
349 picks · 178 bans
Spirit Breaker
335 picks · 530 bans
Kunkka
334 picks · 535 bans
Wraith King
274 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 60%
Hero pool strength60% Infamous
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total57% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:10
beastcoast 43%Infamous 57%
The model gave 57% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 24:14.
Game 2prediction correct53:39
beastcoast 43%Infamous 57%
The model gave 57% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 58:36.
Game 3prediction correct34:21
beastcoast 43%Infamous 57%
The model gave 57% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 28:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 57%
Series resultbeastcoast 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3