Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infamousloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Infamous
Bane
Prada · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 11 games
Marssignature
Mariano · 8 games
Rubicksignature
Genek · 6 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Genek · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
591 picks · 453 bans
Puck
408 picks · 864 bans
Mars
404 picks · 624 bans
Dragon Knight
385 picks · 499 bans
Bane
355 picks · 237 bans
Snapfire
344 picks · 171 bans
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 597 bans
Chaos Knight
295 picks · 648 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Infamous
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total51% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:15
beastcoast 51%Infamous 49%
The model gave 51% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infamous in 42:17.
Game 2prediction missed10:34
beastcoast 51%Infamous 49%
The model gave 51% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infamous in 31:20.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 51%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2