Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infamousloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Infamous
Miranasignature
Nuages · 25 games
Treant Protector
Nuages · 18 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Oscar · 11 games
Skywrath Mage
Jupiter · 11 games
Rubick
Jupiter · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Hyko · 9 games
Terrorbladesignature
mini-` · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
768 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
547 picks · 452 bans
Tiny
434 picks · 380 bans
Beastmaster
419 picks · 977 bans
Nature's Prophet
399 picks · 675 bans
Undying
398 picks · 592 bans
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 917 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 209 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 46%
Hero pool strength54% Infamous
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total84% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:22
beastcoast 84%Infamous 16%
The model gave 84% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infamous in 40:29.
Game 2prediction missed31:49
beastcoast 84%Infamous 16%
The model gave 84% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infamous in 1:06:17.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 84%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2