Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Infinity Esports
Elder Titan
Nuages · 4 games
Mirana
Jupiter · 4 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Benny · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
mini-` · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jupiter · 2 games
Abaddon
Nuages · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
mini-` · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
mini-` · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
434 picks · 979 bans
Void Spirit
414 picks · 576 bans
Death Prophet
364 picks · 706 bans
Mars
348 picks · 595 bans
Earth Spirit
310 picks · 301 bans
Grimstroke
303 picks · 273 bans
Tusk
303 picks · 194 bans
Phoenix
261 picks · 410 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:34
beastcoast 62%Infinity Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 31:55.
Game 2prediction missed39:37
beastcoast 62%Infinity Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 49:02.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 62%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2