ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 1:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Invictus Gamingloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1010 picks · 712 bans
Tiny
621 picks · 456 bans
Disruptor
585 picks · 441 bans
Nature's Prophet
554 picks · 892 bans
Tusk
516 picks · 388 bans
Snapfire
511 picks · 360 bans
Death Prophet
503 picks · 1195 bans
Ember Spirit
502 picks · 1099 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:37
beastcoast 52%Invictus Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 38:53.
Game 2prediction missed22:32
beastcoast 52%Invictus Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 32:32.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 52%
Accuracy by game0 of 2