The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
671 picks · 455 bans
Techies
648 picks · 682 bans
Doom
578 picks · 1121 bans
Beastmaster
499 picks · 1225 bans
Ember Spirit
495 picks · 1041 bans
Disruptor
487 picks · 460 bans
Enchantress
457 picks · 720 bans
Pangolier
436 picks · 909 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:27
beastcoast 65%Invictus Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 53:16.
Game 2prediction missed39:14
beastcoast 65%Invictus Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 32:36.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 65%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2