PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lavaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Lava
Grimstrokeoften banned
Genek · 4 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
Vengeful Spirit
Gardick · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Frank · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
Gardick · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
426 picks · 695 bans
Mars
404 picks · 653 bans
Techies
404 picks · 324 bans
Lion
394 picks · 361 bans
Tiny
385 picks · 481 bans
Batrider
384 picks · 848 bans
Vengeful Spirit
360 picks · 359 bans
Crystal Maiden
355 picks · 159 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 41%
Hero pool strength55% beastcoast
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:10
beastcoast 47%Lava 53%
The model gave 53% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 31:01.
Game 2prediction correct8:22
beastcoast 47%Lava 53%
The model gave 53% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 30:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 53%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2