The International 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 1:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
LGD Gaming
Tinysignature
XinQ · 20 games
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 14 games
Dazzlesignature
y` · 12 games
Chensignature
y` · 11 games
Marcisignature
XinQ · 11 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
515 picks · 374 bans
Marci
474 picks · 686 bans
Undying
314 picks · 527 bans
Death Prophet
297 picks · 466 bans
Puck
276 picks · 647 bans
Enigma
268 picks · 855 bans
Dawnbreaker
265 picks · 374 bans
Pangolier
264 picks · 373 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 67%
Hero pool strength65% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:25
beastcoast 19%LGD Gaming 81%
The model gave 81% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 51:59.
Game 2prediction correct37:18
beastcoast 19%LGD Gaming 81%
The model gave 81% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:47.
Game 3prediction correct35:25
beastcoast 19%LGD Gaming 81%
The model gave 81% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 39:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 81%
Series resultLGD Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3