Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mad Kingswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Mad Kings
Rubick
Gardick · 21 game
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 17 games
Tiny
Elmisho · 17 games
Disruptor
Gardick · 16 games
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 13 games
Silenceroften banned
Gardick · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
725 picks · 606 bans
Disruptor
557 picks · 490 bans
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1060 bans
Doom
425 picks · 714 bans
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 1008 bans
Tiny
388 picks · 372 bans
Undying
384 picks · 606 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 203 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:27
beastcoast 80%Mad Kings 20%
The model gave 80% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 40:49.
Game 2prediction missed33:44
beastcoast 80%Mad Kings 20%
The model gave 80% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 40:51.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 80%
Series resultMad Kings 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2