ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
South Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
South Team
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
Lion
Accel · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Leostyle · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Wij · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
ArzenT · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Wij · 1 game
Hoodwink
Wij · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 484 bans
Phoenix
279 picks · 426 bans
Lion
270 picks · 235 bans
Grimstroke
263 picks · 450 bans
Vengeful Spirit
261 picks · 175 bans
Nature's Prophet
248 picks · 715 bans
Pangolier
247 picks · 346 bans
Magnus
242 picks · 390 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% South Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:27
beastcoast 75%South Team 25%
The model gave 75% on beastcoast — the game was taken by South Team in 31:32.
Game 2prediction missed15:32
beastcoast 75%South Team 25%
The model gave 75% on beastcoast — the game was taken by South Team in 43:40.
Game 3prediction missed14:33
beastcoast 75%South Team 25%
The model gave 75% on beastcoast — the game was taken by South Team in 54:41.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 75%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3