The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 1:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 56 games
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 28 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 26 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 26 games
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 26 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 24 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
677 picks · 456 bans
Techies
640 picks · 676 bans
Doom
576 picks · 1117 bans
Ember Spirit
502 picks · 1044 bans
Beastmaster
500 picks · 1239 bans
Disruptor
499 picks · 475 bans
Enchantress
466 picks · 712 bans
Pangolier
439 picks · 918 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 39%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total56% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:26
beastcoast 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 48:02.
Game 2prediction correct43:19
beastcoast 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 56%
Accuracy by game2 of 2