Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Unknownloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Team Unknown
Earth Spirit
Wij · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 1 game
Marsoften banned
drakeel · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
Berna · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
drakeel · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Wij · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
103 picks · 227 bans
Mars
97 picks · 198 bans
Earth Spirit
91 picks · 70 bans
Void Spirit
80 picks · 135 bans
Phoenix
73 picks · 80 bans
Rubick
63 picks · 32 bans
Undying
63 picks · 84 bans
Nyx Assassin
62 picks · 221 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 73%
Hero pool strength59% Team Unknown
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Unknown
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:27
beastcoast 41%Team Unknown 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 38:04.
Game 2prediction correct27:25
beastcoast 41%Team Unknown 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 41:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unknown · 59%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2