Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Unknownloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Team Unknown
Earth Spirit
Wij · 5 games
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 5 games
Marsoften banned
drakeel · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Wij · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Robo-Z · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 3 games
Earthshaker
Wij · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
449 picks · 982 bans
Void Spirit
427 picks · 590 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 691 bans
Mars
351 picks · 604 bans
Earth Spirit
322 picks · 294 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 181 bans
Grimstroke
280 picks · 242 bans
Phoenix
276 picks · 390 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 37%
Hero pool strength56% Team Unknown
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:26
beastcoast 71%Team Unknown 29%
The model gave 71% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 39:35.
Game 2prediction missed25:27
beastcoast 71%Team Unknown 29%
The model gave 71% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 37:21.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 71%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2