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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Thunder Awakenloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.

Thunder Awaken

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 13 games
85%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 12 games
83%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 12 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
MoOz · 10 games
70%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 10 games
80%
Puck
Pucksignature
Leostyle · 10 games
90%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mnz · 9 games
78%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
428 picks · 960 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
394 picks · 552 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
355 picks · 708 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 570 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
312 picks · 302 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 212 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
285 picks · 287 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
271 picks · 147 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 70%
Hero pool strength63% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:37
beastcoast 42%Thunder Awaken 58%
The model gave 58% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 28:48.
Game 2prediction missed
beastcoast 42%Thunder Awaken 58%
The model gave 58% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by beastcoast.
Game 3prediction correct16:26
beastcoast 42%Thunder Awaken 58%
The model gave 58% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 25:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 58%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3