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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Thunder Awakenloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.

Thunder Awaken

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Michael · 19 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ILICH- · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 12 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
769 picks · 503 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
546 picks · 386 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
540 picks · 435 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
534 picks · 582 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
412 picks · 643 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
395 picks · 279 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
384 picks · 703 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
359 picks · 778 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total71% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:21
beastcoast 71%Thunder Awaken 29%
The model gave 71% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 32:23.
Game 2prediction missed37:30
beastcoast 71%Thunder Awaken 29%
The model gave 71% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 44:09.
Game 3prediction missed37:22
beastcoast 71%Thunder Awaken 29%
The model gave 71% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 35:45.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 71%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3