DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TSMwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
TSM
Rubicksignature
Ari · 23 games
Lycansignature
kasane · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 13 games
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 12 games
Disruptor
Whitemon · 11 games
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 11 games
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 11 games
Rikioften banned
Ari · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1001 picks · 674 bans
Tiny
658 picks · 482 bans
Nature's Prophet
607 picks · 958 bans
Tusk
558 picks · 435 bans
Snapfire
521 picks · 357 bans
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1160 bans
Treant Protector
506 picks · 494 bans
Disruptor
502 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% TSM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:35
beastcoast 62%TSM 38%
The model gave 62% on beastcoast — the game was taken by TSM in 45:51.
Game 2prediction missed11:36
beastcoast 62%TSM 38%
The model gave 62% on beastcoast — the game was taken by TSM in 26:12.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 62%
Series resultTSM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2