The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 1:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Tundra Esports
Doomoften banned
33 · 23 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 22 games
Visagesignature
33 · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
33 · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 14 games
Snapfiresignature
Nine · 14 games
Tinysignature
Saksa · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
496 picks · 386 bans
Marci
434 picks · 667 bans
Death Prophet
297 picks · 462 bans
Puck
285 picks · 687 bans
Dawnbreaker
275 picks · 394 bans
Undying
262 picks · 472 bans
Chen
248 picks · 508 bans
Winter Wyvern
247 picks · 331 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 18%
Hero pool strength61% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:35
beastcoast 58%Tundra Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:35.
Game 2prediction missed30:25
beastcoast 58%Tundra Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:17.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 58%
Accuracy by game0 of 2