IESF World Esports Championship 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Беларусьwin 2:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Болгарияloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Беларусь
No games played over 6 months.
Болгария
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
471 picks · 648 bans
Clockwerk
405 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 510 bans
Luna
346 picks · 431 bans
Dark Willow
317 picks · 171 bans
Enchantress
316 picks · 632 bans
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 382 bans
Batrider
283 picks · 299 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Беларусь
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total70% Болгария
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Беларусь 30%Болгария 70%
The model gave 70% on Болгария — the game was taken by Беларусь.
Game 2prediction correct
Беларусь 30%Болгария 70%
The model gave 70% on Болгария — the game was taken by Болгария.
Game 3prediction missed
Беларусь 30%Болгария 70%
The model gave 70% on Болгария — the game was taken by Беларусь.
Model check result
Model favoriteБолгария · 70%
Series resultБеларусь 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3