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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Save- · 43 games
60%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 25 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
Kataomi · 23 games
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 22 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kataomi · 22 games
68%
Bane
Bane
Kataomi · 21 game
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Kataomi · 20 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 19 games
42%

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 27 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 25 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 24 games
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 23 games
65%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 21 game
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nightfall · 18 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 18 games
39%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
566 picks · 916 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
534 picks · 406 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
488 picks · 624 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
488 picks · 655 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
418 picks · 894 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
380 picks · 620 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
368 picks · 513 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
362 picks · 218 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total66% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:21
BETBOOM TEAM 57%Aurora Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 46:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritgpK~
57% · 215 games45% · 273 games
Queen of PainLorenof
Queen of Pain
Clinkz
ClinkzKiritych
65% · 23 games47% · 163 games
WindrangerNightfall
Windranger
Axe
AxeMieRo
40% · 126 games53% · 12 games
LargoWs
Largo
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSave-
54% · 125 games52% · 158 games
UndyingKaori
Undying
Disruptor
DisruptorKataomi
47% · 178 games54% · 61 game
LionMira
Lion
Game 2prediction missed14:32
BETBOOM TEAM 57%Aurora Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 39:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzKiritych
69% · 61 game53% · 320 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightgpK~
43% · 376 games52% · 442 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsMieRo
45% · 286 games64% · 20 games
LargoWs
Largo
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSave-
49% · 227 games50% · 165 games
Skywrath MageMira
Skywrath Mage
Tusk
TuskKataomi
45% · 440 games44% · 443 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Game 3prediction missed19:35
BETBOOM TEAM 57%Aurora Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 30:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKiritych
54% · 97 games49% · 133 games
WindrangerNightfall
Windranger
Puck
PuckgpK~
50% · 296 games50% · 281 game
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Axe
AxeMieRo
42% · 159 games52% · 16 games
LargoWs
Largo
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinKataomi
60% · 72 games51% · 88 games
Ancient ApparitionKaori
Ancient Apparition
Phoenix
PhoenixSave-
45% · 130 games50% · 236 games
Shadow ShamanMira
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 66%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3