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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO5
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 3:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kataomi · 40 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Save- · 36 games
64%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kataomi · 36 games
61%
Muerta
Muerta
Save- · 28 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
gpK~ · 24 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 24 games
54%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 24 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Save- · 23 games
52%

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 50 games
66%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 47 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 46 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 44 games
61%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 37 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 32 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 31 game
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
592 picks · 507 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
528 picks · 413 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
496 picks · 544 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
493 picks · 251 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
465 picks · 400 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
391 picks · 919 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 978 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
382 picks · 233 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 75%
Hero pool strength58% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total61% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:19
BETBOOM TEAM 43%Aurora Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 1:02:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaKiritych
46% · 207 games52% · 116 games
Faceless VoidNightfall
Faceless Void
Pangolier
PangoliergpK~
43% · 338 games51% · 329 games
Queen of PainMikoto
Queen of Pain
Enigma
EnigmaMieRo
42% · 82 games60% · 114 games
LargoWs
Largo
Windranger
WindrangerSave-
47% · 202 games49% · 411 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Tusk
TuskKataomi
50% · 519 games59% · 378 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed28:5
BETBOOM TEAM 48%Aurora Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 42:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingKiritych
60% · 226 games48% · 184 games
DoomNightfall
Doom
Pangolier
PangoliergpK~
50% · 367 games50% · 313 games
Queen of PainMikoto
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
TidehunterMieRo
60% · 224 games45% · 315 games
MarsWs
Mars
Silencer
SilencerKataomi
54% · 151 game45% · 365 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Ringmaster
RingmasterSave-
47% · 305 games42% · 96 games
LionMira
Lion
Game 3prediction missed41:20
BETBOOM TEAM 45%Aurora Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 49:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaKiritych
50% · 300 games47% · 562 games
TinyNightfall
Tiny
Puck
PuckgpK~
50% · 558 games50% · 437 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Largo
LargoMieRo
60% · 172 games49% · 305 games
UnderlordWs
Underlord
Tusk
TuskKataomi
48% · 785 games46% · 456 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Windranger
WindrangerSave-
46% · 336 games56% · 391 game
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 61%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3