The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 26 games
Pugnasignature
Save- · 26 games
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 25 games
Rubicksignature
Save- · 23 games
Tiny
gpK~ · 23 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Nightfall · 21 game
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 21 game
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 18 games
Azure Ray
Beastmastersignature
BEYOND · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
fy · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
7e · 9 games
Rikisignature
天命 · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
zzq · 8 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
lou · 8 games
Rubicksignature
天命 · 8 games
Silencersignature
天命 · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
690 picks · 473 bans
Techies
623 picks · 652 bans
Doom
572 picks · 1118 bans
Disruptor
516 picks · 493 bans
Beastmaster
515 picks · 1250 bans
Ember Spirit
492 picks · 1054 bans
Enchantress
467 picks · 693 bans
Pangolier
450 picks · 926 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:14
BETBOOM TEAM 48%Azure Ray 52%
The model gave 52% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 31:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerNightfall
Alchemistlou
Storm SpiritgpK~
Ember SpiritSomnus
UnderlordPure~
Legion CommanderChalice
PugnaSave-
Skywrath Magefy
Crystal MaidenTORONTOTOKYO
Enchantress天命
Game 2prediction correct17:26
BETBOOM TEAM 47%Azure Ray 53%
The model gave 53% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 41:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerNightfall
Naga Sirenlou
Dark SeerPure~
Legion CommanderChalice
Ember SpiritgpK~
PangolierSomnus
Shadow DemonSave-
Batriderfy
SilencerTORONTOTOKYO
Pugna天命
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2