DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CCheeki_Breekiloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Hoodwink
Save- · 37 games
Muertasignature
Save- · 26 games
Banesignature
Kataomi · 25 games
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 24 games
Tusk
Kataomi · 22 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 21 game
Dragon Knightsignature
gpK~ · 19 games
Jakirosignature
Kataomi · 19 games
Cheeki_Breeki
Tidehunteroften banned
Malik · 4 games
Disruptor
Xakoda · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
Grimstroke
OneJey · 2 games
Jakirooften banned
Xakoda · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
560 picks · 680 bans
Tusk
510 picks · 337 bans
Dragon Knight
482 picks · 662 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 536 bans
Snapfire
426 picks · 147 bans
Hoodwink
402 picks · 194 bans
Mars
375 picks · 518 bans
Gyrocopter
371 picks · 509 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 69%
Hero pool strength51% Cheeki_Breeki
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:5
BETBOOM TEAM 71%Cheeki_Breeki 29%
The model gave 71% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 34:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterKiritych
Naga SirenDarkLord^
BeastmastergpK~
Shadow FiendLorenof
EnigmaMieRo
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
Ogre MagiKataomi
PudgeOneJey
HoodwinkSave-
DisruptorXakoda
Game 2prediction correct33:10
BETBOOM TEAM 70%Cheeki_Breeki 30%
The model gave 70% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 29:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerKiritych
GyrocopterDarkLord^
DoomMieRo
TimbersawMalik
TinygpK~
Queen of PainLorenof
WindrangerSave-
LionOneJey
SilencerKataomi
Ogre MagiXakoda
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 86%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2