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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Edgewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Save- · 29 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 28 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 26 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pure~ · 24 games
58%
Muerta
Muerta
Save- · 23 games
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
55%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
gpK~ · 20 games
60%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kataomi · 19 games
47%

Edge

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 11 games
18%
Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 10 games
30%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Yadomi · 9 games
22%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
PiPi · 9 games
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Michael · 9 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Vitaly · 8 games
25%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Vitaly · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 640 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
490 picks · 248 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
469 picks · 424 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
402 picks · 857 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
388 picks · 441 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
382 picks · 568 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
377 picks · 335 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
357 picks · 835 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 32%
Hero pool strength59% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total96% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:13
BETBOOM TEAM 83%Edge 17%
The model gave 83% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 37:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPure~
52% · 242 games49% · 232 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Batrider
BatridergpK~
50% · 501 game55% · 276 games
BeastmasterVitaly
Beastmaster
Axe
AxeMieRo
48% · 55 games48% · 235 games
Storm SpiritPiPi
Storm Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerSave-
47% · 248 games48% · 232 games
Dark WillowMichael
Dark Willow
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKataomi
54% · 219 games48% · 290 games
TuskPuppey
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed21:40
BETBOOM TEAM 83%Edge 17%
The model gave 83% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Edge in 38:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPure~
46% · 196 games61% · 93 games
Templar AssassinParker
Templar Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of PaingpK~
41% · 142 games49% · 237 games
PangolierVitaly
Pangolier
Axe
AxeMieRo
53% · 39 games52% · 118 games
MagnusPiPi
Magnus
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKataomi
46% · 157 games52% · 117 games
Shadow DemonPuppey
Shadow Demon
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSave-
52% · 174 games53% · 143 games
ClockwerkMichael
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed19:26
BETBOOM TEAM 83%Edge 17%
The model gave 83% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Edge in 31:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendgpK~
43% · 189 games45% · 285 games
TerrorbladeParker
Terrorblade
Lycan
LycanMieRo
54% · 132 games46% · 368 games
BeastmasterVitaly
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinyPure~
49% · 609 games57% · 207 games
MagnusPiPi
Magnus
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKataomi
44% · 207 games49% · 322 games
ClockwerkMichael
Clockwerk
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSave-
56% · 200 games56% · 155 games
Shadow DemonPuppey
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 96%
Series resultEdge 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3