DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 26 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
MieRo · 25 games
Dark Willowsignature
Save- · 23 games
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 17 games
Terrorbladesignature
Nightfall · 16 games
Phoenixsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 14 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Save- · 14 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 27 games
Gyrocopter
dyrachyo · 21 game
Muerta
tOfu · 19 games
Alchemistsignature
dyrachyo · 18 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 15 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Seleri · 15 games
Grimstrokesignature
tOfu · 14 games
Sven
dyrachyo · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
371 picks · 338 bans
Vengeful Spirit
332 picks · 318 bans
Centaur Warrunner
318 picks · 475 bans
Mars
290 picks · 400 bans
Techies
278 picks · 193 bans
Hoodwink
275 picks · 148 bans
Pangolier
270 picks · 402 bans
Batrider
264 picks · 462 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head7 – 2
Model total56% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:11
BETBOOM TEAM 54%Gaimin Gladiators 46%
The model gave 54% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 41:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerNightfall
Terrorbladedyrachyo
Dragon KnightgpK~
DazzleQuinn
OmniknightMieRo
MarsAce
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
WindrangertOfu
TechiesSave-
Vengeful SpiritSeleri
Game 2prediction missed7:22
BETBOOM TEAM 55%Gaimin Gladiators 45%
The model gave 55% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaNightfall
RazorQuinn
PuckgpK~
Anti-Magedyrachyo
MarsMieRo
Centaur WarrunnerAce
LionSave-
GyrocoptertOfu
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Game 3prediction correct24:8
BETBOOM TEAM 56%Gaimin Gladiators 44%
The model gave 56% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 32:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingNightfall
Anti-Magedyrachyo
BeastmasterMieRo
PuckQuinn
Storm SpiritgpK~
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Keeper of the LightSave-
RubicktOfu
Crystal MaidenTORONTOTOKYO
Vengeful SpiritSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 56%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3