Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
Rubick
Save- · 19 games
Tiny
Save- · 14 games
Clockwerksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Leshracsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
Pugnasignature
Save- · 13 games
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
gpK~ · 11 games
Hydra
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 27 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 23 games
Batridersignature
Worick · 20 games
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 13 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Kami · 13 games
Lycansignature
Cloud · 12 games
Snapfire
Lefitan · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
761 picks · 607 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 470 bans
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1007 bans
Tiny
417 picks · 379 bans
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 941 bans
Doom
395 picks · 600 bans
Undying
392 picks · 603 bans
Nature's Prophet
386 picks · 662 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:12
BETBOOM TEAM 58%Hydra 42%
The model gave 58% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 39:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassingpK~
MedusaKami
BloodseekerNightfall
DoomCloud
AxePure~
InvokerWorick
EnchantressSave-
RubickLil
LichTORONTOTOKYO
MiranaHappyDyurara
Game 2prediction correct40:15
BETBOOM TEAM 57%Hydra 43%
The model gave 57% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 33:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaNightfall
AlchemistKami
TidehunterPure~
WindrangerWorick
Void SpiritgpK~
TimbersawCloud
EnchantressSave-
TechiesLil
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
Crystal MaidenHappyDyurara
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 70%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2