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ESSENCE II · BO2
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Save- · 31 game
61%
Kez
Kezsignature
Kiritych · 30 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Save- · 25 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kataomi · 24 games
63%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
gpK~ · 23 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 22 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kataomi · 22 games
55%
Largo
Largosignature
MieRo · 21 game
71%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 27 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Crystallis · 23 games
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
yamich · 19 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 19 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
BOOM · 18 games
61%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
BOOM · 17 games
35%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 17 games
35%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Seleri · 17 games
35%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
497 picks · 357 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
372 picks · 225 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
354 picks · 644 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
335 picks · 340 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
315 picks · 229 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
310 picks · 309 bans
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
294 picks · 427 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
292 picks · 390 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 25%
Hero pool strength63% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total90% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:35
BETBOOM TEAM 77%MOUZ 23%
The model gave 77% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 48:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKiritych
45% · 105 games62% · 144 games
Nature's ProphetCrystallis
Nature's Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritgpK~
47% · 357 games53% · 87 games
Earth SpiritSupream^
Earth Spirit
Axe
AxeMieRo
43% · 210 games49% · 258 games
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
RubickSave-
45% · 128 games49% · 243 games
Shadow DemonOneJey
Shadow Demon
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernKataomi
57% · 48 games54% · 116 games
UndyingTobi
Undying
Game 2prediction correct31:28
BETBOOM TEAM 75%MOUZ 25%
The model gave 75% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 41:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKiritych
54% · 65 games55% · 60 games
LycanBOOM
Lycan
Windranger
WindrangergpK~
46% · 111 games49% · 106 games
Nature's ProphetSupream^
Nature's Prophet
Viper
ViperMieRo
54% · 79 games39% · 60 games
JuggernautCrystallis
Juggernaut
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionKataomi
49% · 45 games50% · 86 games
HuskarOneJey
Huskar
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSave-
58% · 63 games46% · 51 game
LichTobi
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 90%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2