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ESSENCE II · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Save- · 32 games
63%
Kez
Kezsignature
Kiritych · 30 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Save- · 28 games
54%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
gpK~ · 25 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 24 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kataomi · 23 games
61%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Kataomi · 23 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 21 game
71%

OG

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 19 games
37%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Tims · 17 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
59%
Windranger
Windranger
Natsumi · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 15 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Skem · 13 games
46%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Skem · 12 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
521 picks · 365 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
370 picks · 656 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
369 picks · 208 bans
46%
Tiny
Tiny
331 picks · 353 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
326 picks · 360 bans
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 447 bans
55%
Windranger
Windranger
311 picks · 233 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
294 picks · 334 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength61% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total81% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:22
BETBOOM TEAM 72%OG 28%
The model gave 72% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 1:07:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidKiritych
58% · 63 games47% · 95 games
Drow RangerNatsumi
Drow Ranger
Underlord
UnderlordMieRo
50% · 266 games44% · 300 games
BeastmasterRaven
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritgpK~
55% · 481 game44% · 435 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Rubick
RubickSave-
50% · 317 games51% · 293 games
SnapfireSkem
Snapfire
Bane
BaneKataomi
56% · 264 games47% · 268 games
WindrangerTims
Windranger
Game 2prediction missed26:37
BETBOOM TEAM 69%OG 31%
The model gave 69% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by OG in 57:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidKiritych
55% · 53 games52% · 145 games
TinyNatsumi
Tiny
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyergpK~
little data50% · 100 games
SnapfireYopaj
Snapfire
Mirana
MiranaSave-
52% · 72 games50% · 36 games
EnigmaRaven
Enigma
Axe
AxeMieRo
46% · 228 games49% · 77 games
WindrangerTims
Windranger
Elder Titan
Elder TitanKataomi
51% · 27 games42% · 22 games
VenomancerSkem
Venomancer
Game 3prediction correct23:13
BETBOOM TEAM 70%OG 30%
The model gave 70% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 41:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Io
IoKiritych
49% · 25 games47% · 150 games
KezNatsumi
Kez
Largo
LargoMieRo
55% · 136 games46% · 27 games
Night StalkerRaven
Night Stalker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritgpK~
51% · 299 games52% · 124 games
Monkey KingYopaj
Monkey King
Elder Titan
Elder TitanKataomi
64% · 17 games43% · 122 games
EnchantressSkem
Enchantress
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSave-
51% · 143 games47% · 197 games
WindrangerTims
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 81%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3