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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Bane
Banesignature
Kataomi · 35 games
74%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 32 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Save- · 26 games
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 26 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Pure~ · 23 games
52%
Windranger
Windranger
Save- · 22 games
55%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
gpK~ · 20 games
60%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Pure~ · 20 games
65%

Team Liquid

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 24 games
54%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 24 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 23 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 20 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
37%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 19 games
37%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
677 picks · 327 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
572 picks · 587 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
449 picks · 232 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
403 picks · 1153 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
382 picks · 658 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
368 picks · 255 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
350 picks · 912 bans
46%
Warlock
Warlock
348 picks · 155 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head10 – 3
Model total55% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:35
BETBOOM TEAM 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 49:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaKiritych
52% · 200 games41% · 74 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
49% · 216 games51% · 256 games
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckgpK~
51% · 427 games53% · 257 games
Void SpiritNisha
Void Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSave-
53% · 171 game52% · 254 games
JakirotOfu
Jakiro
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKataomi
48% · 245 games48% · 418 games
TinyBoxi
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed36:35
BETBOOM TEAM 46%Team Liquid 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 52:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKiritych
47% · 269 games55% · 244 games
Nature's ProphetNisha
Nature's Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastgpK~
45% · 132 games50% · 54 games
Faceless VoidmiCKe
Faceless Void
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderMieRo
36% · 7 games47% · 112 games
SlardarAce
Slardar
Muerta
MuertaSave-
50% · 196 games54% · 351 game
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
Tusk
TuskKataomi
47% · 336 games57% · 179 games
SnapfiretOfu
Snapfire
Game 3prediction missed28:12
BETBOOM TEAM 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistKiritych
50% · 134 games46% · 217 games
AbaddonmiCKe
Abaddon
Timbersaw
TimbersawMieRo
54% · 231 game50% · 367 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritgpK~
52% · 408 games50% · 155 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Muerta
MuertaSave-
49% · 351 game51% · 298 games
PugnatOfu
Pugna
Warlock
WarlockKataomi
51% · 344 games48% · 431 game
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 55%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3