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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kataomi · 41 game
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Save- · 37 games
57%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kataomi · 31 game
61%
Muerta
Muerta
Save- · 26 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 25 games
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Kiritych · 22 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
gpK~ · 21 game
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Save- · 21 game
48%

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusksignature
rue · 28 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 26 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 24 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 22 games
59%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
rue · 22 games
59%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 19 games
74%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirele · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
588 picks · 864 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 533 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
448 picks · 405 bans
46%
Warlock
Warlock
435 picks · 302 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
400 picks · 1031 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
390 picks · 664 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 579 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 551 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total70% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:7
BETBOOM TEAM 40%Team Spirit 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 38:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaKiritych
54% · 155 games47% · 229 games
Templar AssassinYatoro
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritgpK~
49% · 418 games52% · 168 games
LeshracLarl
Leshrac
Largo
LargoMieRo
52% · 113 games42% · 231 game
SlardarCollapse
Slardar
Ringmaster
RingmasterSave-
51% · 400 games52% · 66 games
Nyx Assassinrue
Nyx Assassin
Bane
BaneKataomi
59% · 184 games44% · 576 games
JakiroPanto
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct12:31
BETBOOM TEAM 38%Team Spirit 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaKiritych
50% · 217 games52% · 343 games
BeastmasterYatoro
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinygpK~
44% · 498 games48% · 116 games
InvokerLarl
Invoker
Necrophos
NecrophosMieRo
44% · 12 games52% · 137 games
Primal BeastCollapse
Primal Beast
Jakiro
JakiroKataomi
52% · 653 games47% · 506 games
WarlockPanto
Warlock
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSave-
55% · 128 games51% · 406 games
Shadow Shamanrue
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed35:10
BETBOOM TEAM 38%Team Spirit 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 40:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidKiritych
56% · 114 games52% · 144 games
MorphlingYatoro
Morphling
Void Spirit
Void SpiritgpK~
48% · 452 games51% · 481 game
PuckLarl
Puck
Mars
MarsMieRo
49% · 503 games44% · 250 games
BatriderCollapse
Batrider
Ringmaster
RingmasterSave-
51% · 571 game51% · 369 games
Tinyrue
Tiny
Oracle
OracleKataomi
52% · 78 games47% · 474 games
JakiroPanto
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 70%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3