BLAST Slam I · BO5
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 3:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Batridersignature
Save- · 27 games
Tuskoften banned
Kataomi · 26 games
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 20 games
Doomoften banned
MieRo · 17 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Save- · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gpK~ · 15 games
Enchantresssignature
Kataomi · 15 games
Muertasignature
Save- · 15 games
Tundra Esports
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 32 games
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 30 games
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 30 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 27 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 26 games
Doomsignature
33 · 24 games
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
505 picks · 685 bans
Clockwerk
428 picks · 488 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 532 bans
Luna
356 picks · 457 bans
Dark Willow
351 picks · 180 bans
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 482 bans
Enchantress
327 picks · 635 bans
Batrider
316 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 7
Model total56% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:9
BETBOOM TEAM 55%Tundra Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 42:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangoliergpK~
MorphlingNightfall
Drow RangerPure~
LinaLorenof
MagnusMieRo
Lycan33
MuertaSave-
Naga SirenWhitemon
PugnaKataomi
RubickSaksa
Game 2prediction missed21:23
BETBOOM TEAM 53%Tundra Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 46:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingPure~
PuckLorenof
InvokergpK~
SpectreNightfall
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
Visage33
Shadow DemonSave-
PhoenixWhitemon
Ogre MagiKataomi
MagnusSaksa
Game 3prediction correct41:21
BETBOOM TEAM 52%Tundra Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 56:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistPure~
Storm SpiritLorenof
PangoliergpK~
UrsaNightfall
BrewmasterMieRo
Beastmaster33
MuertaSave-
BatriderWhitemon
Crystal MaidenKataomi
LionSaksa
Game 4prediction correct24:6
BETBOOM TEAM 55%Tundra Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 34:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingPure~
SvenNightfall
DoomMieRo
LinaLorenof
Earth SpiritgpK~
Visage33
MuertaSave-
TuskSaksa
Naga SirenKataomi
Shadow DemonWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 56%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4