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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Techies
Techiessignature
Save- · 38 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 31 game
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Save- · 30 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 30 games
77%
Doom
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 29 games
62%
Undying
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 26 games
77%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
65%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
Pure~ · 22 games
73%

Virtus.pro

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
sayuw · 12 games
58%
Techies
Techies
Fng · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 10 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 10 games
90%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Squad1x · 8 games
88%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Noticed · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
213 picks · 270 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
179 picks · 383 bans
54%
Sven
Sven
176 picks · 253 bans
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
165 picks · 164 bans
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
164 picks · 153 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
161 picks · 69 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
154 picks · 231 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
149 picks · 85 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total82% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:13
BETBOOM TEAM 69%Virtus.pro 31%
The model gave 69% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 44:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingNightfall
49% · 75 games54% · 57 games
LinaSquad1x
Lina
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerPure~
44% · 67 games68% · 15 games
SpectreKiritych
Spectre
Invoker
InvokergpK~
41% · 60 games55% · 62 games
KunkkaNoticed
Kunkka
Pugna
PugnaSave-
57% · 27 games51% · 99 games
PhoenixFng
Phoenix
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
44% · 65 games55% · 61 game
Grimstrokesayuw
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct36:37
BETBOOM TEAM 68%Virtus.pro 32%
The model gave 68% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 1:27:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokergpK~
43% · 81 game44% · 58 games
KunkkaSquad1x
Kunkka
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerPure~
49% · 95 games55% · 34 games
MuertaKiritych
Muerta
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSave-
45% · 102 games57% · 251 game
DoomNoticed
Doom
Wraith King
Wraith KingNightfall
51% · 81 game54% · 178 games
TuskFng
Tusk
Undying
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
47% · 222 games56% · 60 games
Grimstrokesayuw
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 82%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2