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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Big Brainloss 0:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Supernovawin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Big Brain

Tusk
Tusk
marblue · 12 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
marblue · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
marblue · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Tz. · 8 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Tz. · 7 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Manic · 7 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Molasses · 6 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Molasses · 6 games
50%

Supernova

Rubick
Rubick
sheep · 9 games
44%
Tusk
Tusksignature
sheep · 6 games
83%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sheep · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
sheep · 5 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
sheep · 4 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sheep · 3 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
sheep · 3 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
sheep · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
998 picks · 692 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
642 picks · 476 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
591 picks · 936 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
545 picks · 406 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 418 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
531 picks · 371 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1208 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
506 picks · 384 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Big Brain
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Supernova
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:43
Big Brain 47%Supernova 53%
The model gave 53% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 45:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingEcho
57% · 10 games40% · 39 games
Dark Willowsheep
Dark Willow
Slark
SlarkManic
83% · 8 games
Tidehunter
TidehunterMolasses
50% · 4 games
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntermarblue
little data
Disruptor
DisruptorTz.
52% · 17 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSupernova · 56%
Series resultSupernova 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1